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Men’s French Open Draw Analysis: Does Rafa Need the Help?

The draw to the 2019 French Open has been announced and our probabilistic predictions are now posted.  Nadal is the favorite at 38.3%, followed by Djokovic at 22.4% and Federer at 14.4%.  

In order to quantitatively assess the draw, 10,000 draw possibilities were analyzed through a Monte Carlo analysis (the algorithm and not the Masters 1000 site) and compared to the actual draw.  The chart below shows the distribution of probabilistic odds of winning the championship across the 10,000 random draws and the actual draw.  

Nadal has the good draw, giving him an extra 3.7% chance to win the title over the average and 89% better than all the draw possibilities.  Nadal’s likely path to the final is below:

Rounds 1 & 2: Qualifiers

Round 3: Goffin (64%)

Round of 16: Pella (35%), Gasquet (29%), or Basilashvili (16%)

Quarterfinals:  Medvedev (29%), Nishikori (26%), Tsonga (14%), or de Minaur (10%)

Semifinals: Federer (44%), Cilic (14%), or Tsitsipas (10%)

Finals: Djokovic (40%), del Potro (16%), Thiem or (8%)

Djokovic, on the other hand, was given an exceptionally difficult draw, resulting in a reduced chance of 3% and only better than 14% of the draw possibilities.  Djokovic’s likely path includes:

Round 1: Hurkacz

Round 2: Querrey (76%)

Round 3: Simon (51%), Munar (31%)

Round of 16: Coric (50%), Struff (21%), or Albot (11%)

Quarterfinals:  Zverev (30%), Agut (20%), Fognini (13%), or Kyrgios (7%)

Semifinals: del Potro (30%), Thiem (19%), Khachanov (18%), or Monfils (14%)

Finals: Nadal (55%), or Federer (23%)

Of course, it remains to be seen how the tournament plays out, but Rafa has to be happy with his draw.

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